55.2m case-growth expected for whisky & gin
These, together with tequila at 5.8 million cases and baijiu (expected to grow by 48.2 million cases between 2016 and 2021), will contribute the most in overall total global spirits category growth which is expected to reach 3.19 billion cases by 2021.
Baijiu is forecast to see the largest growth all of spirits categories over the next five years, benefiting from a growing economy in China and increased demand for business banquets.
Consumption of local whiskies in India continues to thrive, reports IWSR with Scotch there forecast to continue being one of the largest growth segments. Globally, Scotch is forecast to contribute 10.5 million cases to overall whisky growth over the next five years and US whiskies a further 8.9 million cases. ‘Other’ whiskies (predominantly Indian) will be the largest contributor, growing by 28.2m cases. The US is the second-largest growth market for whisky behind India, forecasting the strongest gains for US and Irish whiskey (which is forecast to grow by 3.7 million nine-litre cases globally between 2016 and 2021 with the United States its strongest growth market.
Tequila will also make its largest gains on the US market with additional growth forecast in its domestic market, Mexico.
Despite its being a top growth market for many categories IWSR predicts that the total US alcohol market will decline by 37 million cases over the next five years. The forecast growth in wine, whisky and tequila is not enough to offset declines in beer, cider and mixed drinks, it states.
“Gin’s domestic market, the UK, has led the way for the gin revival,” states the report, “The huge range of brands now available on the UK market (likely to be over 700) offers plenty of room for consumers to experiment. The UK gin market is forecast to gain an additional 1.4 million cases by 2021. Similar growth is expected in Spain and the US.”
IWSR forecasts that beer and wine will gain the largest volumes in the overall alcohol market over the next five years, adding 139 million cases and 76.5 million cases respectively. The IWSR forecasts strongest growth for beer in Mexico, India and Vietnam.
China and the US will see the largest growth in wine consumption over the next five years with both local and imported wines winning over consumers.
The IWSR’s unique approach to forecasting has proven reliable. Comparing last year’s forecast for 2016 with actual 2016 data, the IWSR’s forecast at a global level differed by just 0.5% for wine and by just 0.3% for all spirits.