Off-trade

Global wine consumption to grow 1.4%

A new Vinexpo/International Wine and Spirit Research study forecasts growth of 1.4% in global wine volumes between 2015 and 2019, with sparkling wines, which presently account for 8% of total wine consumption, driving this growth through a forecast increase of 7.4%.

The outlook for Rosé wine seems good too with Rosé, which represents 9% of all still light wines consumed, to grow by 2.2% between 2015 and 2019 while that of premium still light wine will rise by 12% in the same period, according to Vinexpo/IWSR. For the past 14 years Vinexpo has commissioned the IWSR to perform its world market study with five-yearly forecasts.

According to the study, between 2013 and 2014 the global wine market slowed slightly, losing 1.5% in volume.

Europe and the countries comprising the Commonwealth of Independent States (formed when the former Soviet Union – now called Russia – dissolved in 1991 and today comprising Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Georgia) accounted for over 30 million cases of this loss.

Asia-Pacific also shed volume, driven largely by China’s slowdown.

Still light wine was the most affected. Sparkling wines fared somewhat better – the non-Champagne sparkling wine market lost just 1.8m cases and Champagne only 170,000 cases.

The study reports that global consumption of still light wine fell 1.2% in 2014 to 2.4 billion cases. Key to this development was declining consumption in Europe, particularly North West and Southern Europe and Asia Pacific.

The Americas, which had recently witnessed healthy growth, slowed to a smaller growth rate of 0.5% from 2013 to 2014.

 

Market to pick up from 2016

Vinexpo/IWSR expects the global market for still light wine to pick up again from 2016 in line with recovery in Asia. However that exponential growth in Asian markets seems to be over; consumption will continue growing at a more moderate level.

North America remains a growing market, even though this growth is expected to be slower than previously. However some regions are expected to see more growth than previously: Africa, Central Europe & the Balkans, the CIS countries and the Middle East.

South Africa and Japan are expected to make up the balance. Excluding local wine consumption, Asia-Pacific will continue to represent the greatest opportunity for volume growth with China, Japan and Australia – three of the top five expected growth markets.

 

Global value increases 1.1%

The value of the global still light wine market increased 1.1% in 2014 despite the volume decline of 1.2%. At $175.96 billion, values are now running at $4bn more than in 2012.

The US remains by far the most valuable market at $29.15bn followed by the (highly-taxed) UK at $17.34bn, France at $17.33bn and Italy at 13.76bn.

 

Red wine still dominates

In 2015 red wine accounted for over 54% of volumes consumed globally, white wine 37% and rosé 9%.

 

Sparkling wine to continue growth

Between 2010 and 2014 global consumption of sparkling wine increased by 1.8% in volume to reach 210.8 million cases. Vinexpo/IWSR predicts that it would continue growing by 8.7% on the 2019 horizon.

 

Champagne outside France

Champagne consumption outside France increased 2.4% to reach 10.9 million cases. Asia-Pacific drove this growth with Australia and Japan the leading markets. Much smaller Hong Kong, New Zealand and South Korea – as well as China – also saw healthy growth.

Japan is forecast to see the most growth ahead of the US and Australia – the third-highest growth ahead of Italy.

 

Prosecco boom continues

Consumption of sparkling wines other than Champagne increased by 1.3 million cases, driven by the Prosecco boom in the UK.

But in Germany, the world’s largest market for non-Champagne sparkling wines, consumption declined following recent years of strong growth. Between 2014 and 2019 sparkling wine should again pick up albeit at a much slower rate, predicts Vinexpo/IWSR.

Indeed the overall market is expected to add almost 20 million cases over the next five years: Asia, North & South America and Southern Europe are all expected to increase intake by more than a million cases.

 

Spirits – flat global volumes

Global volumes for spirits reached 3.07 billion cases in 2015. From 2010 to 2014 global growth had been at a high level of 8.6%. Consumption will continue to grow by 2.8% until 2019, forecasts Vinexpo/IWSR.

 

Vodka

Overall vodka consumption has declined slightly every year since 2010. This tendency will continue, predicts the report. However it points out that premium vodkas remain fashionable.

 

Cognac/Armagnac

After some difficulties in 2013 Cognac continued to recover in 2014, rising 0.7% to 12.7 million case sales. The resurgent US market has been the key driver of growth here where the category added a further 300,000 cases. Almost all the leading brands gained.

 

Rum

Overall rum volumes lost a further 2.7% in 2014. Vinexpo/IWSR notes that the market is clearly divided between large – but generally very cheap markets like India, the Philippines and Cuba – and the more premium (but generally smaller) Western markets such as the US, Germany, Spain and France.

In the latter Premiumisation remains a tangible trend with volumes of premium – and above – rums topping 6.5 million cases for the first time. This trading-up trend can be seen in all higher qualities, reflecting the marketing of several key brands and the slow-growing trend among some consumers for sipping rum in the same way as malt whisky.

 

 

 

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