Wine to top $207 billion by 2022
Global consumption of still and sparkling wine is forecast to reach a value of $207 billion by 2022 for a total volume of 2.7 billion nine-litre cases, reveals the latest IWSR Vinexpo report.
8 April 2019 | 0
IWSR predicts that the total still and sparkling wine market will grow 2.15% in volume between 2017 and 2022.
Driven by the trend to ‘drink less but better’, value growth has outstripped volume growth across all regions, particularly evident in the Americas and Asia-Pacific, reports IWSR.
While volume and value advances in Europe were more moderate, the region continues to dominate global consumption volume and value shares at 58% and 50% respectively.
“The US continues to inch forward as the world’s most valuable wine market, worth $34.8 billion in 2017,” states the report, “France is the second most valuable market at $16.7 billion followed closely by China at third place at $16.5 billion.”
The Vinexpo/IWSR research predicts that China will overtake France by 2020 as the second most valuable market in the world. By 2022, it predicts that the value of the Chinese market will hit more than $19.5 billion.
The volume ranking of the top five markets remained unchanged in 2017, states the report. The US was in the lead at 318 million cases, followed by Italy (266m) France (250m), Germany (224m) and China (156m).
The world’s leading import markets are Germany at number one with 126.3 million cases, followed by the UK at 114 million cases. By contrast, the US (79.9m) and China (61m), ranked third and fourth, continue to trend positively.
Premium biggest driver of value growth
In the run-up to 2022, premium wines (priced at $10.00-$20.00) will be the biggest driver of value growth for still and sparkling wine (up 15% between 2017 to 2022), predicts IWSR. The US and China will be major contributors to this trend.
Red dominates consumption
While red wine dominates global consumption with a 55% share, it’s forecast to fall below 54% by 2022. Over the same period consumption of white wine and particularly rosé, is set to rise.
Sparkling puts fizz into market
“Sparkling wine is putting fizz into the global market, especially in Europe which accounts for 65% of volume and 55% of value,” states the report, “World volume of 260.2 million cases was worth $28.9 billion. By 2022, volume is expected to rise to 281 million cases, worth $32.9 billion.
“The US will drive imported sparkling wine growth over the next few years by adding 4.6 million nine-litre cases. Growth in the UK will slow.”
Vinexpo/IWSR state that the UK will add another 1.8 million cases between 2017 and 2022. Both US and UK sparkling wine imports will be driven by prosecco, a major driver of sparkling wine consumption.
In value terms, the top five markets are the US ($4.5bn), France ($3.6bn), the UK and Germany ($2.7bn each) and Italy ($2.5bn).
While locally-made spirits account for nearly 90% of worldwide consumption, international spirits are eroding this share, especially in China (baijiu) and Asia-Pacific (cane, brandy and rum).
Between 2017 and 2022, consumption of imported spirits is predicted to grow by 12% to reach 399 million nine-litre cases.
“Global spirits will inch forward in the run-up to 2022,” the report concludes, “Declines in vodka will be offset by big advances by whisky (65.9m cases), gin (9.5m) and flavoured spirits (2.4m).
“Such is the strength of the trend to premium brands – especially in the US and China – that all premium-plus categories (except vodka) are forecast to grow over the next five years.
Vinexpo Bordeaux will take place from 13th-16th May.