According to The IWSR Forecast 2015-2020 Global Review the Compound Annual Growth Rate between 2015 and 2020 will be -1.6% compared with the 2009-2014 CAGR of +0.6%. However IWSR notes that the growth between 2009 and 2014 was mostly recovery following the economic crisis.
The Irish 2015-2020 spirits domestic consumption figures are in contrast to the IWSR’s global forecast which indicates that the international spirits market will grow by almost 122 million nine-litre cases between 2014 and 2020 to surpass 3.2 billion cases by 2020.
But this CAGR of +0.6% between 2014 and 2020 is well down on the previous five-year period (2009 to 2014) which represented 3.6% global CAGR.
According to the IWSR, growth is expected to be more conservative than previously as many markets experienced strong recovery of volumes in the aftermath of the global recession.
However total annual consumption of whisk(e)y will rise to 467.4 million cases, overtaking vodka to become the second-largest spirits category behind national spirits by 2020. Whisky and Tequila are forecast to be the fastest-growing spirits categories, with a CAGR from 2014-2020 of 3.8% and 2.9% respectively.
IWSR’s Global Trends and Innovation Consultant Sophia Holliday reports that the lion’s share of global growth will stem from Asia, with China and India outperforming all other markets. However, growth in North America, Africa & Middle East and the duty-free markets will contribute to the category’s overall expansion too.
Population growth and rising disposable income levels in many emerging markets will aid growth in spirits consumption but mature markets such as the US and the UK are set to draw back some of the attention from less-developed regions with attractive opportunities for volume and value development, she reports.
Consumption of imported spirits is forecast to rise with a CAGR of 1.6% between 2014 and 2020 adding 37.5 million cases, with gin and Tequila showing the fastest growth.