The world wine market is seeing a small but broadly-based increase in overall ‘attractiveness’. But recent economic growth in developing wine markets has masked the growing threat of trade disruption in the key consumption markets of the US, China and the UK, according to Wine Intelligence, the global wine research and consultancy company, in its latest report Global Compass 2019.
Overall, the global wine market’s total retail value within the top 50 markets has increased by 1.2% in the past year to $204 billion at the same time as the total volume of wine has decreased by 1.7%.
The growing ‘per bottle’ value of wine sold in a number of markets has lifted the average Compass score across the globe.
“The good news from Compass 2019 is that more people are paying more money for their wine around the world than ever before,” said Senior Project Manager and editor of Compass Luis Osorio, commenting on the report, “On the other hand, large numbers of wine drinkers are moderating their consumption of wine, perhaps because of health reasons, perhaps because other alcohol categories are taking share.
“The key uncertainty remains how the global trade picture changes during the next 12 months. An escalation of the Trump tariff war and the threat of a disorderly Brexit are known factors, but unquantifiable at the moment given the range of possible outcomes they represent.”
Alongside consumption Compass uses a variety of economic and other wine market factors to create a model that shows a holistic picture of how ‘attractive’ a market is for wine such as the country’s GDP, globalisation, how easy it is to start a business there, if it has import taxes and other such variables.
US ‘most attractive’ global wine market
The US again tops the list of what Compass considers the ‘most attractive’ wine markets in the world, though the sustained volume growth of the past decade in the US has largely subsided.
The US’s continued Compass attractiveness rating rests largely on the willingness of American consumers to trade up in terms of the price they pay for the wine they buy while other categories such as craft beer and spirits compete more strongly for share of personal alcoholic beverage consumption.
Canada, France, Germany and The Netherlands (moving up this year from ninth place in 2018) round out Compass’s Top Five ‘most attractive’ global wine markets.
South Korea has also seen a significant increase in attractiveness, making it into the top 10 for the first time.
Ireland came in 13th place over 2018-10, down one from its Compass placing last year.
Among the other stories of note in Compass 2019:
- China has fallen to sixth place in the Compass ranking, mainly the result of the first sustained decline in imported wines in five years and slowing economic growth
- India has entered the top 40 for the first time, based largely on growing import volumes (though still from a relatively low base)
- Russia has tumbled down the rankings, mainly on the back of major volume and value declines in the wine market.