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China to be responsible for quarter of global beer market by 2015

Asia will account for 38 per cent of global beer consumption by 2015 according to a new report from Canadean.

In its Global  Beer Trends, Canadean predicts that consumption will top 2 billion Hectolitres by 2013 with global growth proving ‘relatively robust’ having average growth rates of about 2.8 per cent between 2009 and 2015.

Global Beer Consumption Forecast Growth by Region, 2009 – 2015
        Region                 CAGR* 2009-2015
        Africa                                5.0%
        Asia                                  5.0%
        Australasia                       1.0%
        East Europe                     1.5%
        Latin America                   3.0%
        Middle East/North Africa  5.5%
        North America                  0.5%
        West Europe                    0.0%
                            TOTAL 3.0%
*Compound Annual Growth Rate, rounded up to the nearest 0.5
Source: Canadean Beer Service

The Asian market is of course dominated by China and Canadean predicts that by 2015 China alone will account for over a quarter of all beer consumption. The Chinese beer market is likely to reach 573 million Hectolitres by the end of the forecast period, over twice the size of the US market, the second-largest beer market in the world.

Canadean’s Global Beer Trends data also reveals that Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Angola and India are all predicted to register double digit annual growth between 2009 and 2015.

Indeed the Vietnamese market is forecast to deliver over eight per cent of total incremental global beer volume between 2009 and 2015. But Germany, Netherlands, Canada, France and the UK are all expected to continue to decline and in West Europe only Finland, Italy, Norway, Portugal and Spain are expected to see any growth.

The Russian beer market has been hit harder than most by the economic crisis, the fall in consumer confidence caused by the global economic downturn being exacerbated by a tripling of the beer excise duty last January.

This market had been one of the star performers before the crisis with a CAGR of over 11 per cent between 1999 and 2008. However 2009 saw a fall of nearly four per cent which was compounded by a further fall of seven per cent in 2010.
Canadean predicts that the Russian beer market will return to growth, but not at anything like pre-crisis levels.

For the period 2011 to 2015, assuming no further rise in excise duty or legislative restrictions on beer sales, Canadean predicts a CAGR of just under four per cent.

Canadean’s also ranks the world’s leading brewers and shows that the four largest brewing groups (AB InBev, SABMiller, Heineken and Carlsberg) now account for 42 per cent of all beer sold.

Overall, Canadean sees global beer market growth slowing slightly, but with average global per capita consumption forecast at just 30 litres in 2015, there’s still plenty of potential for growth.

For further details on Canadean’s 2010 Global Beer Trends or Global Brewer Analyser reports contact Kevin Baker on tel: +44 (0)1256 394 220, e-mail beer@canadean.com or visit www.canadean.com.

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